ProbabilityMCQMTP Apr 21Question 3406 of 187
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In a business venture, a man can make a profit of 50,000\displaystyle 50,000 or incur a loss of 20,000\displaystyle 20,000. The probabilities of making profit or incurring loss, from the past experience, are known to be 0.75\displaystyle 0.75 and 0.25\displaystyle 0.25 respectively. What is his expected profit?

Options

A33,500\displaystyle 33,500
B34,500\displaystyle 34,500
C35,500\displaystyle 35,500
D32,500\displaystyle 32,500
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Correct Answer

Option d32,500\displaystyle 32,500

All Options:

  • A33,500\displaystyle 33,500
  • B34,500\displaystyle 34,500
  • C35,500\displaystyle 35,500
  • D32,500\displaystyle 32,500

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Detailed Solution & Explanation

**Finding P(A/B)** Given: - P(A)=1/3\displaystyle P(A) = 1/3 - P(B)=3/4\displaystyle P(B) = 3/4 - P(AB)=11/12\displaystyle P(A \cup B) = 11/12 **Step 1: Find P(AB)\displaystyle P(A \cap B)** Using the Addition Theorem of Probability: P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)P(AB)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B) 1112=13+34P(AB)\frac{11}{12} = \frac{1}{3} + \frac{3}{4} - P(A \cap B) P(AB)=13+341112P(A \cap B) = \frac{1}{3} + \frac{3}{4} - \frac{11}{12} Finding a common denominator of 12: P(AB)=412+9121112=212=16P(A \cap B) = \frac{4}{12} + \frac{9}{12} - \frac{11}{12} = \frac{2}{12} = \frac{1}{6} **Step 2: Calculate conditional probability P(A/B)\displaystyle P(A/B)** P(A/B)=P(AB)P(B)=1/63/4=16×43=418=29P(A/B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} = \frac{1/6}{3/4} = \frac{1}{6} \times \frac{4}{3} = \frac{4}{18} = \frac{2}{9} Hence, **Option D** is the correct answer.

About This Chapter: Probability

Paper

Paper 3: Quantitative Aptitude

Weightage

5-7 Marks

Key Topics

Probability Operations, Expected Value

A logic-heavy chapter dealing with random experiments, events (mutually exclusive, exhaustive), set theory probability, conditional probability, and Bayes' Theorem. It forms the basis for Theoretical Distributions.

View Official ICAI Syllabus

Exam Strategy Tip

Always draw a quick Venn Diagram or tree when faced with 'At least one' or 'Only A but not B' wording. It saves you from double-counting.

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